Tourism and Environment Trade-offs in Post-Pandemic Indonesia: Panel Data Analysis and Provincial Clustering 2022-2025 Nur Widiastuti, Ainina Ratnadewati, Ary Sutrichastini, Lilik Ambarwati
STIE Widya Wiwaha
Universitas Sebelas Maret Surakarta
Abstract
Abstract. The tourism sector is a key driver of Indonesia^s economic growth, particularly during the post-COVID-19 recovery period. However, the rapid expansion of tourism activities has intensified environmental pressures, reflected in the rise of waste generation, declining environmental quality, and excessive resource consumption. Since the long-term sustainability of tourism relies heavily on environmental preservation, it is crucial to empirically examine the trade-off between tourism growth and environmental sustainability. This study aims to analyze the effect of environmental indicators on Regional Original Revenue (PAD) from the tourism sector across Indonesian provinces during the post-pandemic period (2022-2025). The dependent variable used is tourism PAD, while the independent variables include the Environmental Quality Index (IKLH), waste production, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita, land area, population, and environmental or tourism policy (dummy). A quantitative approach using secondary data is employed, combining panel data regression and clustering analysis. Panel regression with EViews is applied to assess the influence of environmental and socio-economic factors on tourism PAD while accounting for interprovincial heterogeneity. Additionally, K-Means Clustering in Orange Data Mining is used to classify provinces based on similarities in tourism and environmental characteristics, producing regional typologies. The results are expected to provide empirical insights into the relationship between tourism development and environmental quality, identify provincial classifications based on performance, and generate policy recommendations to promote sustainable tourism. Ultimately, this research contributes to designing regional tourism strategies that balance economic gains with environmental sustainability.
Keywords: sustainability of tourism,Regional Original Revenue,the Environmental Quality Index, panel data regression, K-means clustering
Topic: Environmental Sustainability in Coastal Cities
