The Effect of Rapid Update Cycle Techniques on The Accuracy of Rain Event Prediction During Borneo Vortex Occurrence in The West Kalimantan Region 1)3) Prabu Aditya S, 2)3) Fitria Puspitasari
1) Ranai Meteorological Station, Indonesia
2) School of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics of Indonesia
3) The Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics of Republic of Indonesia (BMKG)
Abstract
Information on accurate weather forecasts is an important requirement for everyday people. For that, a numerical weather model is needed that accurately predicts the weather. The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) technique is a step in assimilating data every time it cycles. The purpose of this RUC technique is to improve rainfall intensity for short-term rainfall predictions. With the background of the purpose of the RUC, then in this thesis report a study was conducted on the influence of the RUC technique with variations in cycle times of one, three, six and twelve hours. Assimilation is done using assimilation of radial velocity data.
This research was conducted in the West Kalimantan region. Therefore, in this study taking the Borneo Vortex case study routinely occurs as one of the phenomena that increases rainfall in the West Kalimantan region. Based on the results of the study, in general all RUC models have a spatial distribution of the area of rainfall, which has a pattern similar to the non-assimilation model, but differs for the intensity of rain in some areas. Furthermore, if viewed based on the rain category verification, the RUC model with a cycle time of one and three hours is better than the non assimilated WRF model.
From the four RUC model schemes, it can be concluded that the best sequence of WRF model repairs is the RUC model with one hour cycle time, RUC model with three-hour cycle time, non assimilation WRF model, RUC model with six hour cycle time and RUC model with cycle time twelve hours.
