A Conceptual Framework for Integrating Blue Carbon Ecosystems into Climate Mitigation and Coastal Flood Risk Reduction for Power Plants
Intan Pamungkas (a), Yoga Edi Kuncaraningrat (b), Meiri Triani (c)

a,c) Puslitbang (Research Institute), PT PLN (Persero), Jakarta, Indonesia
b) Soil Geography and Landscape Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands

Abstract

Coastal coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) in Indonesia are increasingly facing risks from sea-level rise (SLR) and flooding. In line with 2030 NDC of Indonesia and carbon valuation rules, this study creates a framework that connects mangrove suitability, carbon storage, and flood-risk assessment. This aims to support climate-resilient planning for energy infrastructure. The framework is applied to the Suralaya CFPP under four scenarios: Baseline 2025, Mangrove 2025, SLR 2030, and SLR + Mangroves 2030. Results show that the limited suitable area of 145.23 ha results in a modest carbon storage of 927 tons of CO2 annually, which equals 27.81 million IDR in avoided carbon costs. Mangrove restoration reduces the flooded area by approximately 11% (60 ha) under Baseline 2025 conditions and by about 22% (125 ha) under SLR 2030 scenario. The restoration reduced flood risk level from Significant to Moderate under Baseline 2025 conditions. However, it could not reduce the risk level in the SLR 2030 scenario. These findings demonstrate that while mangroves provide measurable co-benefits for carbon storage and flood attenuation, they are insufficient as a standalone solution. Additional emissions-mitigation technologies and engineered flood-protection measures may be needed to manage residual climate risk. The proposed framework functions as a decision-support tool for government and industry by revealing the physical limits of nature-based solutions and identifying where complementary interventions are required. Overall, the framework offers a transferable approach for integrating blue-carbon ecosystems into climate-risk assessments and sustainable energy-transition strategies for coastal power sector in Indonesia.

Keywords: blue carbon, mangrove restoration, carbon sequestration, flood risk reduction, coastal resilience

Topic: Environmental Sustainability in Coastal Cities