ARIMA Forecasting Model For Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Food Insecurity: A Sustainability Predicting Approach Wayrohi Meilvidiri, Novike Bela Sumanik, Romualdus Turu Putra Maro Djanggo
Universitas Musamus
Abstract
Forecasting plays an important role in understanding the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on various aspects of life, especially food production systems. This research uses the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model to analyze and predict data related to greenhouse gas emissions, composite consumer price index, food expenditure per capita, and food insecurity. This research aims to provide valuable predictive insights to support more effective policy decision making. The results of the forecast show the following: accurate predictions of greenhouse gas emissions, relatively accurate estimates of food price increases although further model evaluation is needed, high explanatory power of the food expenditure per capita model taking into account uncertainty, and the need for improvements. Food insecurity forecasting model due to significant uncertainty in future values. This study provides valuable information for policymakers in addressing challenges related to greenhouse gas emissions, food prices, food spending, and food insecurity.
Keywords: Forecasting,greenhouse gas emissions, food insecurity, Sustainability
Topic: Sustainable Environmental in Multidisciplinary
