PRICE TRANSMISSION ANALYSIS OF PREMIUM RICE IN INDONESIA AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Wahyu Imam Santoso, Haerudin, Marsliana Indah Kusuma

Agribisnis Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

Abstract

Rice is a staple food for the majority of people in Indonesia. Indonesia is one of the largest rice- producing countries in the world with a share of 7.65 percent of the total world rice production. The COVID-19 pandemic has an impact on the economy in Indonesia, including rice price fluctuations. This study aims to analyze rice price fluctuations in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Price transmission is a description of the impact of changes in the price of a good at one market level on changes in the price of that good at other market levels, both spatially and vertically. The purpose of this study is to determine the transmission of rice prices after the COVID-19 pandemic status in Indonesia is declared over. This study uses daily time series data of rice prices at the producer and consumer levels with a total (n) of 100 price observations. Price transmission is analyzed using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model approach. The VAR estimation results show that producer prices and consumer prices influence each other. This condition occurs because they are still in transition and adjustment from the pandemic period to the endemic period.

Keywords: Price fluctuation, covid-19, rice, VAR

Topic: Agricultural Socio-economics