The Ocean Atmosphere Couple Modeling In Spatiotemporal Prediction Of Coastal Inundation Due To Storm Surge (Case Study Of Tropical Cyclone Seroja 2021)
Bagus Primohadi Syahputra, Ahmad Fadlan

Department of Meteorology, School of Meteorology Climatology & Geophysics, Perhubungan 1 Street No. 5, Bintaro-South Tangerang, Banten, 15221, Indonesia

Abstract

Tropical Cyclone Seroja causes high waves in the waters of East Nusa Tenggara which causes coastal flooding and causes casualties due to the absence of a storm surge inundation warning. The purpose of this research is to model storm surge conditions when the Seroja Tropical Cyclone occurs and determine the configuration for mitigating future storm surge events. The data used are GFS data, Himawari Satellite, Jason Satellite, Landsat/Sentinel Satellite, Tidal sea level elevation data, Surface rainfall observation data and other supporting data. The method used is a multi-ensemble combination with a satellite assimilation scheme in WRF modeling as input data for coastal modeling using DELFT3D. The output results are then verified using an artificial intelligence image processing method. The results obtained are multi-ensemble assimilation satellite modeling which produces estimates with fairly good accuracy which results in a seawater intrusion model with fairly good spatial verification. These results are expected to be the basis for mitigating storm surge events if tropical cyclones occur near mainland Indonesia in the future.

Keywords: WRFDA 3DVAR, DELFT3D, Multi Ensemble, Image Processing, Storm Surge

Topic: Interdisciplinary Geosciences