SVEIAR: Covid-19 Epidemic Model with Vaccination and Mudik Tradition in Indonesia
Darsih Idayani (a*), Asmara Iriani Tarigan (a), Selly Anastassia Amellia Kharis (a), Heny Kurniawati (b)

a) Mathematics Program Study, Universitas Terbuka
b) Biology Program Study, Universitas Terbuka

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, also called Covid-19, spread to many countries in January 2020 from Hubei Province, PRC. In Indonesia, the first case of Covid-19 occurred in early March 2020. The government has done many things to prevent the spread of Covid-19, urging people to stay at home and carry out regional quarantine and vaccinations. However, the condition of Indonesian society is very complex. The existence of the mudik tradition that is carried out every year by Indonesian people is troubling the government because it risks increasing the spread of the Covid-19 virus. Furthermore, it is difficult for the government to predict the change of infected, dead, and recovered people. Therefore, we proposed an epidemic model for the spread of Covid-19, considering vaccination and mudik traditions, i.e. SVEIAR model. Then the disease-free and endemic equilibrium point and their stability was determined.

Keywords: Covid-19- epidemic model- vaccination- mudik tradition

Topic: MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS