An Epidemic Mathematical Model to Compare the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants: The case of COVID-19 in South Kalimantan, Indonesia
Muhammad Ahsar Karim (a*), Mochammad Idris (a), Yuni Yulida (a)

a) Study Program of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Lambung Mangkurat, Banjarbaru 70714, South Kalimantan, Indonesia.

*m_ahsar[at]ulm.ac.id

Abstract

In this study, an epidemic mathematical model was formed to analyze the comparison of the impact of SARS-Cov-2 variants, namely Alpha, Delta, and Omicron. The model solution was determined by using the Extended Runge-Kutta method. The study is based on the COVID-19 case in South Kalimantan, Indonesia. For comparison purposes, three parameters were determined: transmission rate, recovery rate, and death rate. Parameters are estimated by using the Least Square Nonlinear method. Then, a comparative analysis of the impact of the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants on COVID-19 cases in South Kalimantan is provided. The results showed that the Omicron variant has the highest transmission rate, the Delta variant has the highest death rate, and the Alpha variant has the highest recovery rate, respectively, compared to the other variants.

Keywords: Epidemic Mathematical Model- COVID-19- Extended Runge-Kutta- Least Square Nonlinear- South Kalimantan

Topic: MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS