Climate variability analysis of rice productivity in the central Kalimantan Indonesia
M. Farid Suryadi, Joko Wiratmo

Faculty of Earth Science and Technology
Bandung Institute of Technology

Abstract

The study aims to know how climate variability affects the condition of rainfall and rice productivity. The climate variability reckoned in the study are El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Pulang Pisau district in the central Kalimantan is chosen as a research area because it is a new national food estate area off the island of Java.
The data used on the study is the temperature reanalysis data of ERA5-land, GPCC precipitation data, the climate index data of ONI and DMI, and data of rice productivity. The path analysis method, which is an extension of the linear regression, is used to see the chain of influence between variables.
Path analysis shows that ENSO and IOD have a 15.3% impact on rainfall. ENSO has an impact of -0.09 while the IOD affects -0.04. For a combination of ENSO, IOD, and rainfall variables have an impact on 37.3% of rice productivity. ENSO has a greater direct influence on rice productivity of 0.06 compared with IOD 0.014.

Keywords: ENSO, food estate, IOD, path analysis, rice productivity

Topic: EARTH, ATMOSPHERIC, AND SPACE SCIENCE