Principal Component Analysis to Modeling Cosmic Rays Intensity Based on Variation Solar Activity and Interplanetary Plasma Parameter
Annisa Novia Indra Putri (a,b*), Dhani Herdiwijaya (a), Taufiq Hidayat (a)

a) Astronomy Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia
*annisa.putri[at]sap.itera.ac.id
b) Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences Study Program, Institut Teknologi Sumatera, South Lampung, Lampung, Indonesia

Abstract

Studies of the correlation between the intensity of cosmic rays and the number of sunspots has been carried out for a long time. The various studies that have been carried out have shown an anti-correlation between the intensity of cosmic rays and the number of sunspots, where there are some differences in the time lag in different solar cycles. The differences that arise until now are still a question. In this paper, modeling analysis will be carried out using various parameters from solar activity and interplanetary space such as the number of sun- spots, solar wind speed, Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), the Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS) tilt, and halo CME speed. The data has time intervals that vary from 1749 to 2022, with daily to monthly time resolutions. Analysis of the relationship between the intensity of cosmic rays with these five parameters using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method. The result shows that all parameters have anti-correlation with the cosmic rays intensity. Also, they have the same effect in contributing cosmic rays modulation.

Keywords: Cosmic Rays Intensity, Solar Activity, Interplanetary Plasma, PCA

Topic: EARTH, ATMOSPHERIC, AND SPACE SCIENCE