Model for Controlling Carbon Emission through Substituting Coal Energy with Solar Energy Hasdi Aimon (a), Anggi Putri Kurniadi (a*), Sri Ulfa Sentosa (a), Nurhayati Abd Rahman (b)
(a) Department of Environmental and Development Studies, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Negeri Padang
Jl. Prof. Dr. Hamka, Air Tawar Barat, Kec. Padang Utara, Kota Padang, Sumatera Barat 25171, Indonesia
*anggiputrikurniadi11[at]gmail.com
(b) Faculty of Business Management, Universiti Teknologi MARA
Shah Alam Selangor, 40450, Malaysia
Abstract
This study aims to fill in the gaps in previous studies regarding the impact of using coal energy on the accumulation of carbon emission at the global level. The novelty of this research is to create a model for controlling carbon emission through the substitution of coal energy to solar energy and the role of green economic growth in coal exporting countries (Indonesia and Australia) and coal importers (China) during 2023-2030. The forecasting model analysis is based on panel regression for the period 2008-2022. Meanwhile, for the 2023-2030 a forecasting analysis is carried out by applying a model of decreasing coal consumption (pessimistic, moderate and optimistic), in which each of these models will be substituted by solar energy. The findings for the panel regression found that solar energy consumption and green economic growth contribute significantly to reducing carbon emission, while coal consumption actually increases carbon emission. Furthermore, the average rate of increase in carbon emission for the 2023-2030 in each forecasting model is 6.73 percent for pessimistic, 4.16 percent for moderate and 1.18 percent for optimistic. Then, only in the optimistic model will the energy mix condition be dominated by solar energy, starting in 2026. This study recommends that coal exporting and importing countries apply an optimistic model through the development of solar energy to replace coal energy in achieving the lowest carbon emission growth rates, so as to create harmonization between ecological, economic and social integration.
Keywords: Carbon emission- Coal energy consumption- Solar energy consumption
