Overview of Scenario Thinking on PT Len Telekomunikasi Indonesia^s Long-Term Business Strategy
Ilham Nugraha, Dodie Tricahyono

Magister Management, Telkom University, Indonesia

Abstract

Dynamics in the business world including the telecommunications industry today and, in the future, will be higher where the problems that arise are volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, often called VUCA. To manage or reduce the impact of uncertainty and other VUCA factors in the future happened, scenarios analysis is required.
This research aims to identify baseline and alternatives future resulting from the scenarios analysis process linked to the long-term business strategy in generating future competitive advantage with case studies at PT Len Telekomunikasi Indonesia. The aspects studied are aspects of the external environment including politics, economic, sociocultural, technology, ecology, legal in the present, and the power of change in the future.
The method used in this study is qualitative. Data collection techniques are in-depth interviews and secondary data collection. The sources involved are internal parties of the company that includes directors and structural officials, external parties in the telecommunication industry, and external parties in the non-telecommunication industrial. The results of data retrieval will then be analyzed through framework foresight, PESTEL analysis, and system thinking approaches.
This study finds the fundamental forces of change in the long-term business of PT Len Telekomunikasi Indonesia consist of the government policy on public-private partnership, the suitability of the defense industry holding direction, and digital business growth. Four scenarios are generated based on scenarios analysis consisting of one baseline future and three alternative futures. The resulting baseline future scenario is the Palapa Ring business, while the alternative futures consist of the era of defense telecommunications, digital archipelago, and PPP failure scenarios. For the scenario developed, a set of strategies are proposed to make the company have generated future competitive advantage.

Keywords: Scenario Analysis, Baseline Future, Alternative Futures, Forces of Change

Topic: Digital Business Strategy