The Appearance Between Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) And Sea Surface Temperature In Tropics Area In 2010-2020
Mahardiani Batubara1,*, Muhammad Zainuri 2,, and Kunarso2

1 Marine Science Department, Faculty of Fishery and Marine Science, Diponegoro University
Jl. Prof. H. Soedharto, SH, Tembalang Semarang, Indonesia 50275
2 Oceanography Department, Faculty of Fishery and Marine Science, Diponegoro University
Jl. Prof. H. Soedharto, SH, Tembalang Semarang, Indonesia 50275

Abstract

Indonesia, located in the tropical area, is heavily affected by various global, regional or local weather phenomena, one of which is the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation). At its active stage, MJO has been shown to increase the probability of extreme weather in Indonesia about 60-90% by the increasing of rainfall intensity. This condition is supported by warm SST conditions and wind circulation disturbances in causing the imbalances of water vapor saturation and sea saturation in encouraging the process of evaporation from the sea to form convective clouds. Therefore, in this study, the relationship between MJO active in phase 3, 4, 5, and 6 and SST condition will be analyzed spatially and temporally. In addition, the value of heat flux will be discussed to explain how much the heat is released by the sea to the atmosphere to show the interaction between both of them. This study is conducted from 2010 -2020 uses qualitative and quantitative methods. Quantitative analysis is used to determine the large correlation between active MJO and SST conditions in Indonesian waters. In addition to the RMM1 and 2, MW_IR OISST (microwave-infrared optimum interpolation sea surface temperature), as well as the 850 mb layer wind analysis are also used iQUAM SST data which are collected by various observation instruments such as argo float, drifter, buoys, and also ships as validator. The results of this study showed that MJO active in Indonesia reach its peak every three years, namely in 2012, 2015, and 2018, except when MJO active in phase 3. The coefficient of correlation between MJO intensity and SST indicates the highest value when MJO active in phase 6 in 2017, which is -0.996. While the lowest correlation coefficient values occur when MJO is active in phase 3 in 2020 at -0.02.

Keywords: Madden-Julian Oscillation, sea surface temperature, hear flux, saturation, rainfall intensity

Topic: Earth and Planetary Sciences