Forecasting Export Demand of L-Lysine Animal Feed Product in PT X Indonesia
A Ihwah, R Syafira

Department Agroindustrial Technology, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, Universitas Brawijaya

Abstract

PT X Indonesia is a company engaged in producing additional ingredients for animal feed. Located in Pasuruan - East Java, PT X is one of the industries producing L-Lysine and L-Tryptopan essential amino acids. L-Lysine and L-Tryptopan products are stimulated for animal feed which is exported to several countries. The planning of the production process is based on requests from the headquarters of PT X Indonesia in South Jakarta. Related to meeting the needs of export products to several countries requires planning and providing products that must be planned carefully and as needed. One of the determining factors in planning and providing accurate, effectiveness and efficient products is demand forecasting. Historical data used for forecasting is time series data from September 2019 to January 2020. The best ARIMA model combination chosen for forecasting is (1,0,1) because both the p-values for the AR and MA models are significant and it has the smallest Mean Square Error (MSE). Forecasting results use the ARIMA model showed that L-Lysine export for four weeks were on a range of 2,596.47 tons to 2,597.5 tons with a total of 10387.9 tons and an average of 2,596,975 tons per week.

Keywords: ARIMA, animal feed, demand, export, forecasting

Topic: AGROINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION SYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND REGULATION